Exports are falling, and with the fall being regular and persistent, and hence, we should be seriously worried

Our exports are falling, and with the fall being regular, and persistent, and this should really have us seriously worried. This is a serious matter since our current account deficit has never been stable, and we are just looking up from a deep abyss. Moreover, it is also so much worrying since this comes at a time when our own currency is so highly depreciated.There is not much scope for more depreciation.

Besides, this comes at a time when our imports are still on a rise and the foreign currency inflows, particularly long term stable investments, instead of hot funds, are not coming in at the desired pace.

RBI Gov Rajan, (who had predicted the 2008 US financial collapse, before it actually happened), has been warning that global markets are at the risk of a crash due to the unhealthy monetary policies being adopted by the developed economies, with almost negligible or utterly low interest rate policies of US Fed, BOJ, and BOE, etc., by which they expect to stimulate their depressed economies.

Rajan has also warned that emerging markets are highly vulnerable to big shifts in capital (out)flows triggered by the unprecedented monetary accommodation prevailing in rich and developed countries.

One wonders if the RBI Gov Rajan knows so much about the world economies then what is he doing to address the threat emerging out of the falling exports even if we were to ignore his talk of the impending 1930 type doom in the global economies (that is if we were to use his own terminology).

Let us note that the crisis of 1990s came with negligible exports and the burgeoning debt. Presently too we are facing a stubbornly declining export performance, with the decline continuing unabated. Also, our total foreign debt has since grown many times more than what it used to be in the 1990s.

Export sector being significant employment provider, the decline in export revenues may end up with failures of not just some of the exporters but also that of several of their home based suppliers and the consequent fall in employment opportunities might be scary, even if there are no intentional lay offs.

Are we now getting bored with Lalitgate Part 2

Are we now getting bored with Lalitgate Part 2 :

We have already discussed a few aspects of this issue, that is "are we are now getting bored with Lalitgate". In Part 2, we shall look in to few more aspects of the issue.

The first question is as to why Mr Lalit Modi has been living in self exile and why he is not living in his own homeland.  Why and when did he leave and why is it that so far he has not been brought back despite his being available to almost anyone who wishes to meet him at any point of time. Some say that he has a threat perception from certain elements and hence his self imposed exile.

It is obvious that he is not trying to hide himself and that is not a symptom of a criminal or fugitive. The next question is that if he fears for his life, then he ought to be taking precautions and he should at least try to lie low. 

As the accusations are flying thick and fast, it may be inferred that he might have done some wrongs during the years when he was the administrator and had held immense power in a money spinning sporting event named as IPL.

But has anyone filed any complaint against him in any police station or in any court and if yes, then what was the progress of the case. Has any court of law issued summons for his presence ?

Yes, we hear about the cases under foreign exchange laws and certain such things which they say are not of criminal nature but only of civil nature ? Really, even if someone evades the investigators ?

As the plethora of cases related to cricket indicate, be it betting, involvement of funds brought from undisclosed sources, transactions done at unexplainable and unreasonable rates, and things like that, and these point towards the involvement of not just one but a lot more people in these wrong doings.

One perception is that Mr Lalit Modi was conveniently allowed to go abroad in order to avoid the possibility of any inquiry taking place, and as a result it was ensured that many more people will continue to rest in peace inside the country, while Mr Lalit Modi may enjoy his self imposed exile at the exotic locations of his choice.

The mystery might be resolved if Mr Lalit Modi is brought back and a meaningful inquiry is held in to the entire issue but as the portends indicate, this is not likely to happen anytime soon. It is sad to see that there is not even one honest person with a strong will who could unravel this gigantic scam.

So, the common people of India, need not bother much. It is a rich man's world and with the cricket lovers ready to shower money, crooks will continue to enjoy. Only their names will keep changing.

Are we now getting bored with Lalitgate

Are we now getting bored with Lalitgate :

Is it not terrible to see the same Lalitgate invading your house every time you switch on the tv set ?

It is often seen that when politicians make a mistake, the opposition makes a hue and cry and the ruling party stalls the issue till it dies its own death. This is when there is no criminality involved.

In case the issue refuses to die its own death, then the rulers may initiate an inquiry to assuage the hurt of the people and the matter gradually goes out of currency.

In case there is a criminal aspect to the accusations, someone or other goes to courts and gets the courts to order for the issue being examined and scrutinised by a suitable investigating agency.

In certain cases, it has been seen that the courts have taken cognisance of the issues suo motto and have ordered the relevant authorities to submit the matter for the courts examination.

It is seen that in the case of Lalitgate, there is too much discussion on the media but so far no one has gone to a court of law, and no court has taken suo motto cognisance of the issues so far.

Does it mean that there is no substance in the accusations and that at least there is no criminal aspect that may be taken up in a court of law that may lead to successful prosecution of the accused ?

If it is so then why are the opposition parties crying hoarse on this issue ? 

If the opposition is sure of its arguments, then why not haul up the accused to a court of law ?      

One Year of BJP's Modi Sarkar :

One Year of BJP's Modi Sarkar :

Without saying much, please see the list of the 25 major initiatives of BJP's Modi Sarkar as under :

1. Jan Dhan Yojana - bank accounts for poor

2. DBT - Gas Subsidy transfer

3. Make In India - more investment more jobs

4. Cleanliness (Swachh Bharat), Toilets for all

5. Social Security Schemes, Low Cost Insurance, Atal Pension Scheme

6. Mudra Bank - for small and micro enterprises

7. Beti Bachao Beti Padhao - save and educate the girl child

8. Initiatives on Black Money - SIT and new legislation

9. Price Control / Reduced Inflation - rate cuts by RBI and Banks

10. Smart Cities, Housing for all, Roads and Railways

11. Heritage Cities - the important cities of religious and tourism significance

12. Adarsh Gram Yojana

13. Skill Devlopment

14. Namami Gange - cleaning of rivers and interlinking projects

15. Gram Jyoti Yojana

16. Soil Health Card

17. Rural Infra and Urban Infra

18. Rural Irrigation

19. Augmenting Female numbers in Police Forces

20. Steps taken for ease of doing business

21. Foreign investment in insurance

22. Foreign investment in defense production

23.  NITI Ayog - More transfers to States / Greater Federalism

24. Revival of telecom sector - online auction of spectrum since completed successfully

25. Revival of Mining Sector - transparent online auction of coal mines - continuing

Why NaMo succeeded in 2014 and why should I think that he would do so in future as well, Part 3 :

Why NaMo succeeded in 2014 and why should I think that he would do so in future as well, Part 3 :

--continued from part 2...

We are discussing as to why BJP and NaMo succeeded in 2014 and why should we think that they would continue to do so in future as well. We have already discussed the issues like clarity of command and leadership, good communication abilities of Mr Modi, fine example of development that had taken place in Gujarat under his leadership, bad track record of the previous government, disenchantment of the masses as well as the business community with the previous dispensation, and more so, despite the rhetoric, it seems that the minorities too switched sides and voted for BJP. 

Now let us see as to what happened during the last one year after the victory of 2014 and what holds for the future. BJP has so far, under the leadership of Mr Narendra Modi, gone with small steps at a time and have avoided declaration of big bang reforms that the earlier regimes were so much fond of. 

Mr Modi started his innings with a nuanced change in diplomatic initiatives. After inviting all the SAARC nations for the swearing in ceremony, Mr Modi started his international visits with Bhutan.  Soon after, he went to Brazil to take part in the BRICS summit. Thereafter, he has visited Nepal twice, and has since visited Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh as well. In all, he has been to 18 countries, including Fiji, Myanmar, Seychelles, Mauritius, Mangolia, Singapore, etc..

On the other hand, with economic aspects in mind, he has since been to all the important nations across the globe starting with USA. He has been to France, Germany, Australia, Canada, Japan, China, Mangolia, Australia, South Korea, and there are few more visits scheduled in the near future including visits to Britain, Russia, Central Asia, South East Asia, Turkey, and to Israel and Palestine. 

It is noteworthy that the most important aspect of his diplomatic initiatives has been to have the US President Mr Barack Obama as the Chief Guest for the Republic Day celebrations.

Also, visits of NaMo to various countries brought out the humongous Indian diaspora in full strength.

 

----to be continued----

Why NaMo succeeded in 2014 and why should I think that he would do so in future as well, Part 2

Why NaMo succeeded in 2014 and why should I think that he would do so in future as well, Part 2

Continued from Part 1....

We are discussing the elections of 2014 and in continuity, we may observe that though unwittingly, the forces staunchly opposed to the candidature of Mr Narendra Modi, have contributed immensely to his victory. It may seem incongruous but let us discuss and try to see if this has some truth in it.

This is true that for over a decade the opposition kept on insinuating against BJP in general and against Mr Modi in particular accusing him of being somewhat like a man eating ogre. It is a fact that some people might have been swayed by this propaganda for some time but gradually people started seeing through the crap and decided to let the bygones be bygones and adhered with BJP & NaMo.  

It is also a fact that the previous ruling coterie was getting mired in one controversy after the other by each day and the series of court decisions that went against the actions of the sitting political parties and with so many of their leaders being accused in cases of big corruption, their fate had been sealed.

Of the alternates available to the people, BJP with its clearly defined leadership and relatively clean track record, the choice for the people was obvious and they voted for BJP and NaMo in droves.

One important and crucial aspect of this election was that a succession of court orders going against the actions / decisions of the previous ruling dispensation had its impact on the business / industries.  The economy and investment environment was at its nadir and there was a situation of hopelessness.

Although nothing can be said definitively in absence of information in this regard, but it is a common perception that this situation might have prompted the big guns to prefer BJP and NaMo. As such, it is often said that though the masses vote in elections but it is the classes that make the governments.

Also, the extra ordinary track record of development seen in Gujarat, under the leadership of BJP and Mr Modi, was an inspiration for the people across the nation, and they voted for him with hope.

Let us hope that BJP, under the leadership of Mr Narendra Modi, will keep the hopes alive.

----to be continued----

Why NaMo succeeded in 2014 and why should I think that he would do so in future as well, Part 1

Why NaMo succeeded in 2014 and why should I think that he would do so in future as well, Part 1.

General elections of 2014 were unique in many ways like it is for the first time after 1984-85, that any single party has gained simple majority in Lok Sabha, the popularly elected house of parliament. 

Besides, it is for the first time that a sitting Chief Minister was elevated to the rank of Prime Minister.

Thirdly, unlike the past, voters were not swayed by the rhetoric of so called secular and non secular forces. We may say so since winning 73 seats out of total 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh would not have been feasible without the minorities voting for BJP. We may recall that minorities have very strong presence in almost 27 seats - that is 33% of total seats. Of the 7 seats that went elsewhere, 2 were won by mother son duo of Congress, and 5 seats went to SP supremo Mulayam Singh and his close family members. Results were almost similiar in some other states with higher minority populace.

Also, notably, unlike in the past, BJP had openly declared Mr Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate. Remember, this was not the case even when Late Indira Gandhi was at the helm of affairs. Although it was known to all but she never declared herself as the Prime Ministerial candidate. Even Late Rajiv Gandhi contested elections without being declared as the Prime Ministerial candidate. 

 

Another notable aspect is that BJP fought and won this election under the leadership of someone who is essentially not a career politician. Mr Namrendra Modi had never been in the mainstream politics and never even contested an election before being anointed as Chief Minister of Gujarat in Oct 2001. 

 

Besides, to me it holds much higher significance that BJP fought and won this election under the leadership of an ordinary person, that is someone who is son of poor parents, who used to earn their livelihood through a hard days toil. His parents were no royals, no feudal landlords, no industrialists, no traders, no contractors, not even local advocates or even influential Sarpanch of the area. 

 

For the first time, people had a candidate who genuinely gave his entire life to social work and this enthused the  people. Besides, it is also seen that having no offspring of his own, he did not have the burden of securing the future of his heirs. This is seen as a really big plus point in our political scene.

 

Besides, in my view, what appealed to the youth was his unbelievably good health, high level of motivation and dynamism unseen till now, his ease with the computers, technology and the gadgets. His team came up with innovative uses of technology to reach out to maximum numbers of voters.

 

And then, in the end, it is his ease with words, that makes him a unique inspiring leader of masses. Fact is that he is communicator par excellence and even his detractors are forced to acknowledge this.

....to be continued....

For India to gain speed, it is imperative that NaMo succeeds at any cost

I had last written on the crisis faced by the people of Greece, and how we too faced similiar situation in early 1990s when we had to pawn our gold and later we overhauled our entire economic system.

Although I remain optimistic for various factors giving rise to our expectations of better growth in the coming years but there are reasons that give rise to the fears of the repetition of 1990s like situation.

Let us recall that even after the complete overhaul of the economy under the dictates of the international lenders, the initial hoopla generated in first half of 1990s had evaporated by 1998, and the Atal Govt had to initiate mammoth programme of building up roads and bridges to bolster the economy. As foreseen by the great visionary Atal ji, this had a cascading effect an the economy and growth and development had come back on track by the early years of the new millennium. 

However, due to the lack of similiar vision and foresight by the then rulers, this positive trend of growth did not sustain for long, and a couple of years later, in mid 2000s, the downfall started, and then, the global meltdown of 2008 had its damaging impact on our economy as well. Later, the successive major actions being quashed by the courts leading to crisis of faith and there were hardly any fresh investments worth the name, and our economy is yet to come out of the spiral of decline.

Like I have said about Greece, one decision of its pompous politicians, though well intentioned, has crippled the economy and the people of Greece are today facing a hopeless situation, with no solution in sight, God can only tell as for how long they will continue to face the misery, may be for decades.

Let us remember that the crisis of 1990s came due to our negligible exports and the burgeoning debt. Presently too we are again seeing a strongly declining export performance and it continues unabated. And we must remember that out total debt has grown many times more than what it was in 1990s.

Hence, if we want our economy to embark on the path of assured growth, it is imperative that NaMo succeeds at any cost, and for this even if he has to take any harsh decisions, we must support him.

Hope we do not meet the same fate as people of Greece

Today, our economic pundits, along with the rest of the world, are discussing the fate of Greece.

One friend asked me to explain the cause of the grave financial problems faced by Greece, and he was flummoxed to hear that it was because of the decision of certain pompous political masters of the time to hold the centenary Olympic games in Greece, to which the international community agreed.

Let us note that the massive earthquake of 1999 had devaststed Greece, particularly the capital city Athens, and Greece had borrowed a substantial sum for reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts.

In this backdrop, it was a bit risky to hold the Olympic games as it was more of an emotional issue. Other than the historic significance of holding the Olympic games, the idea behind the proposal was the expectations of giving a boost to the tourism which was expected to bolster the nation's economy.  

It so happened that due paucity of funds, just like India, coupled with lack of financial discipline, the venues for the games were completed in the last minute. The games were held as usual, passed off without much hindrance but the delay in completion of sporting venues and facilities, which was visible to all, failed to encourage the sports lovers and the games turned out to be a financial disaster. 

Despite all this, the economy of Greece was moving on with it being a member of the Combined European Union, and with full support from the international financial bodies, donors nations, etc.

However, the economy never picked up the desired speed and the or the global meltdown and recession since 2008 has only accentuated the situation, with other nations like Ireland, Portugal, and even Italy, being considered among the category of failed economies, by European standards.

Thereafter, while Ireland has stabilised a lot, and Portugal is limping up to regain normalcy, and Italy is no more seen as a problem case, but Greece continues to teeter on crutches.

The austerity measures endured by the populace for nearly a decade is harming the economy more and the lenders are adamant on recovering their pound of flesh ( as in a popular classic drama). 

Nearer home, we too had come much closer to a similiar situation in early 1990s and we had to first pawn out gold to raise funds to meet the impending loan payment crisis and later we had to engage in complete overhaul of our economy to stay afloat, including inviting foreigners to invade our markets. 

I do hope that we do not meet the same fate as the people of Greece, and let us remain optimistic.

Do we have any defined ethical standards in our political discourse

In view of the issues emerging in context of one self exiled former sports administrator, and the constant flow of accusations and counter accusations, and the likely impact thereof upon the political and social environment of the country, it is time we decide to have certain well defined ethical and moral standards in our political system so as to have some reference points for any proper discourse.

Like we should know what makes a guilt, and when one can be seen as guilty, or when it is just an impropriety and not a crime, and when it may just be a minor breach of ethics but neither a guilt, nor a crime, and not even an impropriety either. Looks like we need to go to primary school once again. 

Please do not laugh, since these questions are in the air constantly for the last few days and are not likely to go away in a hurry. It may even impact the working of the next session of parliament unless some suitable solution, acceptable to the opposition parties, emerges in the intervening period.

This is essential if we need to progress and for that we need a functional parliament and not the kind that gets mired in controversies and hardly has time for discussion on the important issues. Like, this time, even if much postponed land bill is not passed, it is necessary to pass the GST Bill.

 

Will Narendra Modi allow Indian Politics to prevail over his own ethical standards ?

Will Narendra Modi allow Indian Politics to prevail over his own ethical standards ?

Usually I avoid writing on politics and would prefer to discuss anything good other than the subjects revolving around politics. No doubt, politics happens to be the most preferred choice of discussion in any gathering or in the mass media but most of you readers would agree that it is often just so futile.

However, this is not to deny the fact that politics happens to have the most significant impact on the fate, the lives and the histories of the individuals as well as the communities and the nations. Besides, it is also to be noted that all those known and revered as great statesmen were essentially politicians. 

In the past few days, the hot political topic is the controversy involving the link between few politicos and one self exiled sports administrator. The events suggest that he used his proximity to the politicos to make things easy for himself in the nation of his present domicile. Here, we may skip the details.

In this backdrop, it is seen that the single point agenda of the opposition happens to be to embarrass the top leadership of the ruling party and to besmirch the reputation of the present rulers. We can not expect them to be in any way bothered about the thing called corruption. After all, politicians are expected to be corrupt and if someone is not, then either he lacks courage to exploit the situation or may be that he just did not have an opportunity. Remember, this equally applies to all human beings.  

It remains a fact that the opposition should have no face to face the people in this case or in any such case since it is the same ruling clique which first gatecrashed the sports bodies, then made situations which allowed corruption to permeate the nooks and corners of sports arena and has since created such stranglehold over the sports bodies that even a superhero would not be able to untangle the grip.

Here, I see no use in discussing it further since any amount of discussion, with the best of intentions, will do precariously little to throw out the politicians from the various sports bodies. And yes, please do not expect one CWG or a Lalitgate to usher in a new era of cleaner and more ethical sports bodies.

My worry is simple, and that is centred around the man at the helm, Mr. Narendra Modi, the PM. The moot question is whether he will act and get rid of the persons with questionable integrity or that he too will allow himself to fall prey to the political games and will get dwarfed like any other politico.

I am watching keenly and expect him to cleanse the party and the government, and all sports bodies, of all the corrupt elements. Otherwise, he too would be facing the same risks and the fate that befell his predecessor, who was seen as an educated, honest, sincere, and well intentioned person, but who, ironically presided over the most corrupt administration for a full decade, as is proven in court cases.

I do not want Narendra Modi to face any similiar ridiculous situation and wish he begins to act now.

Why are the stock markets seeing a free fall ?

Why are the stock markets seeing a free fall ?

There has been a decline of over 1200 points in BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty fell by over 350 points in last 3 days (June 01 to June 03). What is worse is that this has happened soon after RBI announced a cut in Repo Rate. Why is it so ? No one seems to know the real answer to this sharp decline though there are hundreds of self styled experts offering their comments and opinions on a routine basis.

While trying to analyse this from the information readily available and have observed a few issues :

1. RBI cut the Repo Rate by 25 basis points but made some undesirable comments like front loading, adding hints that there will be no further rate cuts in near future, etc., which were seen as unpalatable by the industry and the players in the stock markets. RBI followed up and aggravated it by saying that why should a growing economy need the crutches of rate cuts. This took away the joy out of the cut.

2. It is also seen that markets had fallen sharply even after RBI had cut the Repo Rate the last time. It seems that the players in the stock markets had already taken long positions in anticipation of the rate cut by RBI and decided to book profit soon after the announcement was made by RBI.

3. It is also true that despite the positive vibes created in the last few months, the actual results of the companies were not so heartening. It is also seen that there are hardly any new projects coming up and the exports of the country have been falling on a regular basis. This is acutely worrisome.

4. It may also be observed that the new dispensation at the centre just completed its one year in power and perhaps the markets were expecting some cheering news and big announcements but none came. This too could have disappointed some of the investors and disheartened they decided to book out.

5. One disturbing fact that comes to mind is the announcement regarding the possibility of lower than average rainfall this season, and as it came during trading hours, it created panic in the markets. 

6. It is also a fact that after the advent of the online trading, there is a huge spike in the numbers of short term traders, as against the long term investors, and they react quickly to every market move. This aggravates the situation manifold and the move, up or down, gets accentuated within minutes.

7. Also, it is seen that the investors, and mainly the foreign investors, flocked to the markets during and after the run up to the last general elections. It may be seen that the markets have seen a huge spike in the last one year and some of these investments have now crossed a period of one year. It may be noted that stocks must be held for a period of one year is mandatory for availing the benefit / concession under capital gains tax, and now since the time is ripe, investors are now booking profits.

And lastly, it appears that all the good work done by the ruling party so far has not been enough to enthuse the investors to continue to hold the stocks and they might be booking out for now, to return as and when they feel that the time is good for making a reentry in the markets.

So keep the hope alive. All the investors are not going to run away and the markets will soon revive.         

Perils of being Amitabh Bachchan and Madhuri Dixit : They are being hauled up for endorsing Nestle's Maggi 2 minute noodles

Perils of being Amitabh Bachchan and Madhuri Dixit : They are being hauled up for endorsing Nestle's Maggi 2 minute noodles

Maggi, the 2 minute noodles, manufactured and sold by Nestle in India is in the news these days for all the wrong reasons. It is being alleged that the scrutiny of samples has revealed unduly high level of MSG, a salt / chemical, and potentially dangerous level of harmful material Lead in its packages.

Honestly, it is shocking for me personally since I and my family have been consuming it for decades, and have never ever thought that one day we shall hear something like this about Nestle and Maggi. My children, now grown up, rustle up Maggi every now and then whenever they need a quick bite.

Even today, as I write here, Nestle seems to be sure of the product, and its contents and ingredients, and they aver that there is nothing to worry about. It is noteworthy that while it was decidedly one of the worst days for Indian stock markets, the share price of Nestle witnessed an upswing, after having seen some sound thrashing in the last couple of trading sessions. The anchor on one news channel was saying that Nestle has reportedly got its products tested at home and also at third party labs and have stated that they did not find anything wrong. I shall be happy if it is actually this way but...

On the other hand, authorities across the nation seem to have woken up suddenly and officials from various states are falling over each other collecting samples and sending them for testing. It looks like there is fierce race going on. Some have already declared the product as harmful and dangerous and some have also asked for recall / withdrawal of the products from shops and assorted market outlets.

The moot question is whether Nestle is actually so callous and has been profiteering out of the simple non suspecting people of India. If so, then it needs to be banned and should be asked to pack its bags.

Another and more grave question that arises is as to why and how have the officials across the nation been allowing such thuggery to continue. It may be noted that almost every district has one officer responsible for ensuring food safety, particularly with regard to the contents and quality of packaged food items. Why is it that the officials responsible for ensuing safety of food items never collected samples of Maggi and why nobody is being punished for being careless, rather outright irresponsible.

Now, in India, we are used to and may always trust the spin doctors to twist the matter in such a way that the real issue gets shadowed by proxies. In this case too, some people were quick to throw wool in to the eyes of the people. Is it not surprising that the television channels across the nation are today debating whether there is a case against the brand ambassadors namely Superstar Amitabh Bachchan and Diva Madhuri Dixit, with Priety Zinta, presently away from silver screen and thus not hot news.
      
While we shall have to wait and watch for the future developments in the case, one can not help but mention that if something like this were to happen in say USA, UK or in Europe, then the company would have gone bankrupt by now, and here we are discussing whether Mr. Bachchan and Ms Dixit are culpable. Nobody is talking of punishing the culprit, the manufacturers of the deficient products, the licensing authorities and the hundreds of district wise food safety officers posted all over India.   

To end on a lighter note, while one anchor was shouting at his panel, recommending stringent action against brand ambassadors, citing and reading out lines out of the related law, that a thought passed across my mind, "why not punish the media as well for broadcasting / televising the advertisements of such nefarious products...". After all, we get to see the products' advts only on the tv channels.