Foreign Policy of India : What if Modi / BJP are defeated in 2019 general elections :

Foreign Policy of India : What if Modi / BJP get defeated in 2019 general elections :

Recently I was asked to comment on this topic and this is what I have to say about it. Essentially, foreign policy is a continuous process, with seasonal tweaks but its basics do not alter with every change in Govt (ruling party that is), change of the face of the Govt (PM or FM), and it does not change unless there is a drastic change in the global situation. So irrespective of Modi being there after 2019 or not (though I feel that he is not likely to loose), the foreign policy will continue as it is.

If we look back, we find that USA was on the side of Pakistan in 1971 war but today USA is much more closer and appears more respectful to India. USSR (Soviet Union) had closer ties with India once but things stand diluted after fragmentation of Soviet union. NAM was created by India, Egypt and Yugoslavia. India now hardly mentions NAM. Egypt has gone through several upheavals. Yugoslavia was balkanised in to many nations.

The reasons for big change in foreign policy or diplomacy are usually two fold. One reason is economic - like India opened its economy for foreign investment in 1990s. USA and other nations see benefit in doing trade with India - our huge population provides a blooming market. India is a big importer of Petroleum and Armaments. Other reason is geopolitical developments. Like today world finds China showing its hegemony and nations with different political hues, like USA, Taiwan, Japan, India, Vietnam, Philippines, and many South east Asian nations, are forced to come closer.

In case of India, our first nuclear test in 1974 alienated USA and Europe and we faced economic sanctions. As a consequence, we had to rely more and more on USSR. The second nuclear test in 1999 also led to imposition of economic sanctions but things normalised rather quickly since India, under the visionary leadership of Atal ji, opened a long series of dialogue with USA. The bonhomie between USA and India, that we see today, is a result of those bold initiatives taken by PM Atal ji and US Prez Mr Bill Clinton. Later, Manmohan Singh and George Bush carried the relationship further and the recent friendship between Obama and Modi is continuation thereof.

Another, change that I have noticed in the recent years is that USA and European nations now take India seriously when we talk of terrorism. The change in attitude is because USA and Europe have now seen the horror of terrorism in their own homes.