How badly will AAP defeat BJP in 2019 ?

How badly will AAP defeat BJP in 2019 ?

After reading the question, it may be said reasonably and rightfully that it is not a question but what may be called a pet ‘fantasy’ of few staunch supporters of AAP.

Before we come back to AAP, one would hope that the leadership of BJP and NDA will be aware of the reality and would work hard to ensure a victory in 2019, as the anti Congress sloganeering which helped in 2014 will not be of much help in 2019.

The basic reason for my apprehension is the fact that in 2014 people just wanted to ensure that Congress is removed from power and voters across the country found BJP and NDA, under leadership of Mr Modi, as the best alternative of Congress and UPA and also, the absence of unity in other opposition parties helped greatly.

Biggest advantage was that Communists (mainly CPM) were passing through a rough phase and were not in a position to forge an alliance of the smaller parties. Also, after Delhi fiasco, AAP was completely out of favour at the time of 2014 LS elections.

This is not the case now. BJP / NDA will not be able to gain the same numbers that it had gained in large states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Even in states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, 

Congress is not likely to face complete wash out again in 2019.

Essentially, 2014 votes were against the existing (bad) regime and to some degree, based on hopes and expectations of a better future. This time, the voters will respond to the actual work done by BJP / NDA while it is in power. Besides, it is a well known fact that perception of an average voter is ‘fickle’, can be influenced easily and hence, voter behavour is not easily fathomable.

Also, as may be seen from results in Bihar, a few things may hurt BJP / NDA despite its comparatively much honest governance and lot of good work it has been doing.

First, a united opposition is the biggest threat to BJP / NDA. Still, BJP may rely on the fact that complete unity of opposition, like it was in Bihar, is not so easy to achieve. Particularly, creating a nation wide alliance is difficult. The crux of the matter is that in Bihar, Nitish ji, perceived to be a competent leader himself, has meekly surrendered to RJD of Laloo ji.

Secondly, Congress will not remain deep in dumps forever and gradually, it might gain some sympathy and might improve its tally in 2019. One may expect that the leaders of both the parties / groups, BJP / NDA and Congress / UPA will keep working hard to ensure better results in 2019. And this will lead to a good fight.

Third point is that in a several states, there is hardly any presence of BJP and except for Karnataka, the possibility of BJP gaining more seats in such states seems poor. However, one expects BJP / NDA leadership to keep working hard consistently and persistently and also to spread its wings wider to ensure better results in 2019.

For now, 2019 is far off, and let us wait for the results of MCD elections in next year. Then, there are several big states going to polls in the coming years before LS 2019.

Despite there being some apprehension of BJP and NDA not doing so well in 2019, it is clear that AAP is not going to win against BJP in any election in the near future.

AAP as yet has no presence in much of India, except Delhi and a few seats it had won in Punjab are of no use since most of these MPs have been expelled or left AAP and party stands divided. Given the facts, even winning the assembly elections in Punjab may be hard for AAP. Like wise, AAP has no chance in Goa and Gujarat, despite its brave talk. At least in Gujarat, people are most likely to give such a bad drubbing to AAP that the party and its’ leadership will be forced to reassess their own political worth. Right now, they seem to be riding on high horse of arrogance and self praise.

BJP, which is a new version of Jansangh formed soon after independence, took 40-50 years to gain power at the Centre. What is interesting that despite Delhi being its cradle, BJP has faced defeat in the last five assembly elections. So much so that between AAP 1 of 2013 and AAP 2 of 2015, BJP had a static vote percentage of around 34%. The party must try to find out as to why all the pro Congress voters went en mass to AAP in 2015 and not even a few more of them voted for BJP.

Several old and well established parties, with strong voter base, like SP, BSP, JDU, JDS, RJD, and even the Communists have tried but they have not done well beyond their specific area of influence. 

Well, AAP is still a baby in diapers. However, being a political party with lofty ambition, AAP must keep trying to expand its presence all around. May be someday, they will grow up and start behaving in a better manner.

As of now, BJP looks well entrenched but surprises do happen. In any case, 2019 is not going to be a cake walk for BJP / NDA as the opposition parties are likely to give it a collective fight. Please recall Bihar, where all parties had ganged up against it.